The big question: what now post-Brexit?

Haydn Thomas of Hutchings and Thomas Chartered Surveyors, Newport

The immediate slide in the markets and the pound were almost inevitable due to the uncertainty although the immediate reaction from the markets has now been counterbalanced with the recovery although the pound may take slightly longer to recover in its value. The political fallout on both the Labour and Conservative sides has also added to the 'turmoil' a word which the press and journalists seem to enjoy using.

The fallout in the commercial property sector again is a slight unknown but in the short term there may be a slight hesitation or hiatus in investment. However we feel that this may only be a short term issue as property is always seen as a good long term investment. When considering the impact of the Brexit vote on the UK economy it may be said that the south east may be hit slightly harder than the remaining part of the UK due to its reliance on international investment and the financial sector. This may cause a ripple affect to the regions although again this again is a 'wait and see' situation. From the initial responses it seems that the banks have taken a calm view at least domestically and although there are some rumblings of some capital banks moving some of their currency operations to the continent this would take a good number of years to happen in which time a Brexit deal may have been negotiated to overcome these issues. The main concern for Wales is that a great deal of investment in infrastructure and various projects has been driven by EU funding and we can only hope that the Welsh Government 'fight our corner' to ensure that this money still flows into Wales when the UK exits happens. That being said the exit strategy may take up to five years in which time a great number of other factors may have an influence on the economy. We must remain hopeful that any negotiations on the exit from the EU are beneficial for all parts of the United Kingdom and that a London centric deal is not the only priority.

On a micro economic basis it may be an opportunity for re-establishment of development agencies in areas such as Wales and the Northern areas of England to ensure inward investment and capital expenditure on infrastructure projects such as the M4 Relief Road and circuit of Wales are guaranteed. In the meantime it’s a matter of working hard to ensure that people are still confident in the UK and especially Welsh Economy and that the Brexit situation is used to the best advantage of all regions.

Dan Langford, group marketing director, Acorn Recruitment, Newport

Post-Brexit, everything is a new unknown. Unknowns and uncertainty are not helpful for businesses or for the economy generally, and typically that is not reassuring for jobseekers, as we experienced in the run up to the Referendum when there was a slowdown in hiring. But the shock of the leave decision has now passed, and investors and employers will be wanting to look more positively at how they deal with the decision and what this might mean for their industry, their business and their on-going recruitment plans. Over the long-term, employers will be concerned about the access to the talent they need from abroad to fill the gaps in a number of key sectors such as construction, manufacturing, healthcare, hospitality and IT, where skill shortages are having a detrimental impact on economic growth. And then we need to start grappling with the complexities of employment legislation, trade agreements and so on. Therefore exceptional leadership is urgently required from Governments and politicians here in Wales and in Westminster to provide assurances, guidance and confidence to employers as quickly as possible.

Liz Maher, president of the South and Mid Wales Chamber of Commerce, and director of Centurian VAT Ltd, Newport

This result will cause uncertainty for Welsh businesses. It is therefore vital that the government takes immediate action to prevent a short-term impact on the UK economy and provides the stability that businesses need. Going forward it is important that the result is accepted across the board. Politicians must now coalesce and put differences aside to ensure a strong government can negotiate the best deal for Welsh businesses, especially those trading with Europe. We will also be looking to the government for assurances to our universities, farmers and organisations currently reliant on European funding that they will not lose out when we eventually leave the EU.

Gerald Davies, chairman, Kymin Financial Services, Newport

Every new situation requires careful thought and calm analysis. This is certainly a new situation. Since the vote some things are returning to normality. The FTSE100 (the index of the top 100 shares) initially fell about nine per cent. It recovered sufficiently for the June figures to show an increase for the month of 4.4 per cent. It is now at the highest point for the year. Without question, the biggest area for review is going to be your savings and investments. The fundamentals of the UK economy are relatively strong. We certainly cannot assume that Brexit will be bad for shares; in the long term the stock market will be affected by events around the world – China’s economy, growth in the Eurozone the outlook for the United States, just as much as it will be. Any rise in interest rates, as previously threatened, would be good for savers. It is more than seven years since the bank base rate was reduced to its lowest rate of 0.5 per cent. Governor Mark Carney has hinted at a reduction in rates which would help borrowers. There has even been a hint that a return to printing money (Quantitative Easing) is a possibility.

David Tinsley, UK economist at UBS, has said that he expects two interest rate cuts over the next six months, taking rates from the current 0.5 per cent to zero. In a last desperate throw of the dice, Mr Cameron suggested that the pension 'Triple Lock' might be abandoned. Frankly, I think that this was a scare story which didn’t work. I have a much more sensible idea, which I have communicated to the Treasury. Take the £10 Christmas bonus and the £200 winter fuel allowance, and add them both to the weekly state pension. This would do two things. Amounting to £4 a week, this would become taxable. It would therefore follow that fabulously rich people would not get this money tax-free. It would also remove, at a stroke, the administration of these out of date give-aways. Don’t believe anyone who tells you what will happen to house prices. They always get it wrong. The only thing to trust is the law of supply and demand. As long as the demand is there, house prices will always be sustained. As for our on-going relationship with Europe, all the fuss will eventually die down. Once the bruised egos, on both sides of the Channel, have recovered, we will find ourselves trading with them just as before. Finally, about the hiatus in government, think of this - at the last general election in Belgium, they couldn’t form a government for 14 months. Nobody died, everyone paid their taxes, the trains ran on time. So the main piece of advice is 'there is no need to panic'. In the hours immediately after the vote, Kymin produced a four-page summary of our thoughts. If you would like a copy, we will send you it by email. Our email address is: info@kymin .co.uk.

Ashley Harkus, managing partner, Everett Tomlin Lloyd and Pratt Solicitors, Newport, Pontypool and Usk

In the aftermath of the leave vote there is only one thing that is absolutely certain and that is that nobody knows what is going to happen.

With both major political parties seemingly more interested in fighting among themselves and politics currently resembling a rather far fetched episode of 'Yes Prime Minister', legal commentators and representative bodies have been left trying to reassure both the profession and the public that it will all be alright. At present, there is huge uncertainty when the UK government will make the necessary Article 50 notification to trigger our departure from the EU with the deadline being pushed further and further into the future. Rumours and suggestions of routes to continue trade with Europe while respecting the wishes of the leave voters have yet to turn into any form of coherent plan. Some law firms, in particular those with a number of large multinational clients have reacted. In recent days Magic Circle Law firm Mishcon De Reya has indicated that proceedings will be issued on behalf of a number of business clients in an attempt to prevent the government from making that notification without first passing primarily legislation. Whether this materialises or the higher courts choose to interfere with what is largely a political decision is a question causing some debate. In the shorter term the implications appear to be that a number of government proposals will be kicked into the long grass as the politicians focus on the implications of the vote and in some cases their own personal ambition. The Minister for Justice Michael Gove appears to be rather busy at present leaving the his department rudderless (although some lawyers would say that’s a good thing given the havoc they wreak when they have time on their hands) and who will be Shadow Minister for Justice for the next day or two is anyone’s guess. In the meantime it has been left to the legal representative bodies to reassure their members and the business community that it is business as usual. Jonathan Smithers the President of the Law Society recently confirmed that he hoped that England and Wales would continue to be the global centre for legal excellence but reaffirmed that its is too early for any firm guidance to be given as the shape of the UK’s part in Europe is yet to be defined. As managing partner of a medium-sized law firm which acts for a number of businesses and individuals in a wide variety of matters, the impact of the decision is yet to become clear. It has to be hoped that the politicians will find a way of dealing with the result which doesn’t push the economy back into recession as the improvement in the residential and commercial property markets in recent years has been welcomed by most law firms including my own. The impact on employment law and workers rights, which in many ways has been shaped by Europe to the benefit of many employees is yet to be seen. Law centres have reported a spike in enquiries from non-UK nationals concerned about their futures. It seems at the moment to be a case of wait and see. Any uncertainty is unwelcome as it deters inward investment and threatens the strength of the economy but hopefully a workable solution can be found as a stable economy is good for everyone, even lawyers.