Whyte Mackay stake creeps up to 41.5%

Mackay's offer of 275p cash a share which closes at lunchtime today.

By breakfast time the Whyte & Mackay camp had reported that purchases

and acceptances totalled 38.6%, and by 4.30 when the stock market closed

this had crept up to 41.5%, made up of 39.2% purchases and 2.3%

acceptances.

A close finish is still expected to the #350m takeover battle, which

has now entered its thirteenth week, but drinks analysts at County

NatWest WoodMac concluded that unless one of the remaining major

institutional shareholders in Invergordon decided at the last minute to

support Whyte & Mackay, the bid looked likely to fail, ''albeit by a

fine margin''.

However, the stockbrokers added that in reality Glasgow-based Whyte &

Mackay had won with victory only being delayed by a year.

''Over the next 12 months the group can add 2% to its holding, block

any major corporate or expansion plans Invergordon may have, and prepare

the ground with the necessary institutions to secure future victory.''

At Charterhouse Tilney, Alan Gray reckons Whyte & Mackay may have to

return with a higher bid to win control at a later date.

This, of course, would justify the institutions and other shareholders

who have held out against an offer which values Invergordon at 16.7

times prospective earnings and is described by the County NatWest team

as ''a cheap nip indeed''.

If the offer lapsed, much would depend on the final tally of share

purchases made by Whyte & Mackay. For a start this would indicate how

quickly it could obtain creeping control by buying shares in the market

at the rate of 2% a year.

So far American Brands, Whyte & Mackay's parent, has splashed out the

better part of #140m in buying Invergordon shares in the market, and the

costs of holding such a large investment would be extremely high.

Last night, with Whyte & Mackay having left themselves with quite a

lot to do on the final morning before the offer closes, the Invergordon

camp said: ''We cannot anticipate the final outcome. But we remain

quietly confident this evening.''

Whyte & Mackay were also confident that a rush of institutions taking

the cash on offer at the last minute to preserve their anonymity would

deliver them victory.

A row broke out over the purchase late on Monday afternoon of 1.1

million shares in Invergordon by BZW, Invergordon's brokers, and Robert

Fleming, its merchant bankers.

The Whyte & Mackay camp claimed the shares came from employee

shareholders and were the first purchases of Invergordon shares since

the first day of the increased offer which had not been made by them.

A Fleming official said BZW had bought 500,000 shares and Fleming

itself 640,000 shares for their own books, but would not elaborate

further on the deal.