Princeton, Friday
DOOMSDAY assessments from US and Soviet intelligence agencies a decade
ago closely mirrored each other and were the main factors in the massive
arms buildup by both superpowers, former top officials of both countries
said today.
A newly declassified CIA assessment issued in February 1983 portrayed
the Soviet Union as ''very serious about pursuing defence and about
developing the capability to fight and survive a nuclear war''.
The report was discussed at Princeton University at a conference on
the end of the Cold War.
Former Soviet Foreign Minister Alexander Bessmertnykh said that at the
time the CIA was making that assessment, the KGB was telling Soviet
leaders ''almost the same story'' about US intentions.
Bessmertnykh, a member of the Soviet defence council in 1983, said
Soviet officials believed Ronald Reagan was pursuing a huge military
buildup that ''indicated the United States was serious about
overwhelming the Soviet Union''.
The big US defence effort of the period was the Strategic Defense
Initiative (SDI), the spacebased missile defence system proposed by
Reagan.
Former state secretary George Shultz said SDI was ''very much driven
by Ronald Reagan. It was personal.''
He described a briefing Reagan received at the air defence command
centre in Colorado when he was a presidential candidate.
A Reagan aide asked the general in charge what would happen if a
Soviet nuclear warhead hit somewhere nearby.
''The general said: 'It would blow us away','' said Shultz. ''Reagan
said: 'Well, what can we do about it?' The general said: 'Nothing.' The
future president concluded that was a hell of a state of affairs.''
Shultz said that was Reagan's motivation to pursue SDI rather than any
calculated plan to force the Soviets to spend themselves into
bankruptcy.
Bessmertnykh said when Reagan first proposed SDI as a shield to block
all incoming missiles, Soviet planners decided ''this was a fantasy''.
But later, more limited versions caused great concern. He said the
CIA was correct in saying the Soviets were working hard to upgrade their
landbased intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) force to respond to
the threat of SDI.
''The ICBM was always the heart of the Russian force,'' he said. ''We
thought the only way we could respond to the threat of SDI was to
develop the ICBM as much as possible.''--AP
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